Cuba has been a major opponent of the United States for decades since the Fidel Castro Revolution in 1959. U.S. President Donald Trump has strong support for U.S. President Donald Trump, who has long called for a change in the US-backed government in Cuba.
After Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro was ousted by a military campaign in January, the Trump administration has stepped up pressure on communist-ruled Cuba. However, despite being one of Caracas (Venizuela) Havana’s main allies, one of the reasons why Cuba would not become another “venizula”.
Vice president, Delcy Rodriguez, took over the country after U.S. forces detained Maduro in a slash in a slash in Venezuela on January 3rd, and he is currently serving as interim president.
Rodriguez was the deputy head of Maduro. But there is no specific deputy of Cuba's current president, Miguel Díaz-Canel, or former president, Raul Castro, who is 94.
The United States has filed an investigation into allegations against Raul Castro this week to increase pressure on Havana.
Orlando Perez, an expert on U.S.-Latin America relations at the University of North Texas in Dallas, said the Cuban security system is very well organized. They have systematically uprooted the rise of any alternative or possible political force.
In Venezuela, there is a popular opposition leader and Nobel laureate like Maria Kareena Macado, who could not sit in power despite winning the 2024 election. He hopes to return to the country through free elections this year. But in Cuba, there is no such leader.
Recently, former president's grandson Raul Rodriguez held a rare meeting with CIA director John Ratcliffe in Castro Havana, which sparked rumours that he could negotiate with Washington. However, the Cuban government has no formal position for the young Castro and is unlikely that he will betray his family.
In the past, Cuba was seen as a Soviet satellite state, just 90 miles from Florida. It was recently considered a possible base for China's influence in the Western Hemisphere. But after the collapse of the Soviet Union, Russia's focus is now on the other side and Cuba's current military capabilities are not the same as before due to the economic crisis.
According to experts, instability in Cuba could lead to a major migration crisis. The U.S. economy is living without electricity. If war or chaos begins, they can flee the country in groups.
At the same time, the Cuban military is more ideological and united than Venezuela. They will not give themselves up easily. Several Cuban agents were killed while Maduro's security in Venezuela in January, but survivors saw U.S. forces' combat tactics very closely. Cuba's intelligence and surveillance technology has been greatly improved with a long-standing cooperation with Russia and China.
Venezuela is rich in natural resources and U.S. companies have already lined up to extract oil, leading to a rapid increase in exports.
Cuba has no natural resources. Cuba’s economy has been devastated by Trump’s “maximum pressure” policy, US sanctions and the threat of sanctions on oil suppliers. On the other hand, the country's state-owned tourism industry is far behind other countries in the Caribbean.
U.S. Secretary of State and National Security Adviser Marco Rubio is seen as the main driving force of the Trump administration's Cuba policy. Rubio, the son of a Cuban immigrant born in Florida, has previously fought in the presidential election and is expected to fight again in the future. If there is a major change in Cuba, his political ambitions will be successful. But if the operation fails, it will pose a big risk, especially when the United States itself is in a huge budget deficit and is carrying out a billion-dollar-dollar-expended military operation in Iran every day.
Washington is much bound to change relations with Cuba due to the Helms-Burton Act of 1969. Under the law, it is not possible to lift decades-old U.S. sanctions if specific political changes, including the formation of a democratically elected government in Cuba.
Trump has changed trade relations with Maduro in Venezuela, but the current government has been upheld without a outline of a free election. This is not legally possible in Cuba, until Cuban officials make dramatic changes—which they have so far rejected directly.
The situation in Cuba is more complicated because the country's economy does not have any private sector or private sector. The entire economy is largely under the control of a military conglomerate called ‘Gaisa’, which has US sanctions. The island's top hotels, major ports, the largest commercial banks, supermarkets and gas stations operate in the military alliance.
After all, Washington accused the Maduro government of drug-terror in the operation in Venezuela. But there are no such allegations against Cuban officials, but they have cooperated with the United States to prevent drug trafficking.
